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Brent Slides Below $90, Raising Questions for Algeria's 2027 Budget Assumptions

11 November 2026 · Algeria Now

Brent Slides Below $90, Raising Questions for Algeria's 2027 Budget Assumptions — Photo : El Khabar

Brent crude fell below $90 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since late August, a sharp retreat from levels above $113 at the end of October that matters directly to Algeria, where hydrocarbons still supply the bulk of export earnings and a large share of budget revenue.

Prices closed at $92.57 on Monday after a fall of almost 6 percent, then slipped further as traders bet on a diplomatic end to the confrontation between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump met Qatar's prime minister, a mediator, at the White House on Monday and said he considered the war effectively over. Traders have followed the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began, and the risk premium is now draining away as flows recover.

For Algeria, the picture is mixed. The draft 2027 finance law, due for a vote in the National People's Assembly on 16 November, is built on a fiscal reference price of $60 a barrel and a market price of $70. At around $90, Brent remains well above both. Revenue above the reference price feeds the Revenue Regulation Fund, a cushion that helps cover the Treasury deficit, so a lasting slide towards $70 would narrow that margin.

Pump prices are set by the state and are not affected by the movement in crude. Sonatrach, the national energy company, sells crude and gas at prices linked to market benchmarks, so lower prices will gradually reach its revenue.

The next test comes on 29 November, when OPEC+ ministers meet. Algeria's output quota stands at about 1.007 million barrels a day. A return to hostilities in the Gulf could send prices sharply higher again.

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